I thought it best to let the noise die down after the June 27^th debate between President Biden and former President Trump. It was extraordinary, but I intend to discuss history, not current events. There are enough people around to do that.

            This debate was the earliest in history. Please bear in mind that technically Biden and Trump are the ‘presumptive’ nominees of their political parties. Until the conventions meet in Milwaukee (GOP) and Chicago (Democrats), they are not official…yet.

            Incumbents have nearly ALWAYS struggled, at least in their first debate. They are at a disadvantage for a couple of reasons. First, they have two jobs. One is to run the country, often in difficult times. The second is to run for reelection.

            Past debates have traditionally occurred in late September and October. Their general election opponent has often had to win the nomination against several other men and women and has familiarity with campaigning and debating. In 1976, President Gerald Ford became the first ‘incumbent’ (remember he was NOT elected and was appointed through the 25^th Amendment) to debate. He faced off against former Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter three times.

            Ford’s campaign experience consisted of winning several easy congressional elections in his district in very conservative Grand Rapids, Michigan. That fall, on a much bigger stage (literally and figuratively) with greater stakes, Ford made the gaffe of staring (and repeating) “There” Um yes sir, there had been for three decades.

            Four years later, Jimmy Carter was immersed in trying to secure the freedom of American hostages in Iran. In the only debate that year, he told the nation. That didn’t assure the American people. For the second contest in a row, the sitting president lost.

            Ronald Reagan, a former actor, could remember facts and his lines and deliver them with great wit. In 1980, he countered Carter’s remarks with “There you go again.” In 1984, Reagan was the oldest president at the time (like Joe Biden is today) and was probably ‘overprepared’ by his staff in the first debate (which some Biden family members are echoing now) and performed poorly, but came back like his old self blistering Democrat Walter Mondale with the zinger “I want you to know that also I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent’s youth and inexperience.” All Mondale could do was laugh- and lose.

            In 1992 in a three-way debate against Bill Clinton AND Ross Perot, President George H. W, Bush wasn’t on his ‘A’ game and was caught on camera looking at his watch. His lackluster performance didn’t fare well against the smooth Clinton and feisty Perot. In 1996, Clinton broke the incumbent curse against Bob Dole. Since age has become a factor, was seventy-three years old and over two decades older than the president.

            Polls indicated that George W. Bush lost his debates against Democrat John Kerry in 2004, yet he was able to prevail in the shadow of the September 11^th terrorist attacks and wars in Afghanistan and Iraq to keep the White House. In 2012, Barack Obama’s lack of interest left him lethargic in a debate against Mitt Romney. I He came back strong in the third debate and was also able to secure reelection.

Biden and Trump will battle it out for a fourth time on September 10^th. They debated twice in 2020. One pundit called last week’s contest “the old man and the con man.” Amidst the talk of many for Biden to withdraw, he is unlikely to do so and the mechanics of changing a horse mid-stream is far more complicated than pundits and columnists realize.

Stay tuned, the next four months are going to be very interesting.